Run prediction markets at work

Prediction markets for companies

Ask clear, business‑critical questions. Employees trade yes/no shares with company‑funded balances. Prices show the probability so you can adjust sooner.

No personal deposits. Company‑funded, bonus‑tied balances.

How it works

1) Fund balances

Company funds a small prediction balance for each employee (e.g., a portion of bonus).

2) Create questions

Ask concrete, high‑stakes questions about launches, revenue, and risks.

3) Trade shares

Employees buy/sell Yes/No shares to express beliefs. Price ≈ probability in %.

4) Resolve + pay out

When outcomes resolve, winnings come from the pool and roll into bonus.

What you get

More accurate forecasts

Aggregates real beliefs — not status‑quo bias — into a single, actionable probability.

Earlier visibility

Markets move before dashboards. Catch slips and misses weeks earlier than reviews.

Honest, fun participation

It’s company money. No personal deposits. Winnings come from the pool and tie to bonus.

Research and references

Used inside large enterprises; repeatedly matched or beat official forecasts.

Case studies

Google, Ford, and others: markets reduced expert‑forecast error by up to ~25% (MSE).

Hewlett‑Packard: internal markets outperformed official sales forecasts.

Intel: at least as accurate as official forecasts, sometimes ~20% better.

Overview of corporate prediction markets Deloitte CFO Signals: forecasting accuracy priorities

Why it works

Trading aligns incentives and aggregates information from across teams. A single, visible probability is easier to act on than scattered updates.

See it in action

Simple rollout, SSO, and admin guardrails. We’ll help you start with the right questions.

We respond within 1–2 business days.